U.S. Dollar: Cycle Structure Confirms the Low
The U.S. dollar registered a climactic event at the January 26 low, confirmed across our internal measures by a panic-type Change of Trend (COT) signal. Importantly, this was not an isolated technical anomaly. It occurred within a clearly defined structural cycle window that has been identified (Annual Scenario Planner January 26th 2026 US Dollar monthly bar squared, # Inflection points) for some time, and which is now asserting itself in price.
Precisely based on cycle theory yesterday’s climactic action in the US dollar was the long-term 28-month cycle in the 14-month cycle, last seen July 2023 in the intermediate term cycle on September 20-2024. Both bottomed yesterday.
From a cycle method perspective, the dollar is currently positioned inside a larger bottoming phase projected as outlined in yesterday’s ASP. Within the larger bottoming processes, it is common—and historically consistent—to see sharp, counter-trend advances emerge from climactic exhaustion points. That is precisely what this January low represents.
The timing aligns most closely with the intermediate cycle currently in force. This cycle has been declining into early 2026 and was due for a momentum reset within this window. The panic signature we observed indicates that selling pressure reached a point of capitulation rather than continuation. In practical terms, this marks the transition from forced liquidation to relief and re-pricing, an uptrend.
What makes this low especially meaningful is the intermarket confirmation. Foreign currencies futures exhibited simultaneous exhaustion behavior, while the dollar itself registered capitulation. That combination strongly supports the interpretation of a cycle trough of tradeable importance.
The implication is straightforward. The dollar is now entering a phase where strength should reassert itself over the coming months, consistent with a rally phase into the second quarter and potentially into early summer. The January 26 low was a legitimate inflection point within the long term bull market.
In short, the market just completed a climactic reset. Cycles, price behavior, and volatility all point to the same conclusion: the dollar has transitioned from decline to recovery, and the next phase is about repricing, not persistence of panic.