March 25, 2026
The rally that ignited into Monday's open did not emerge from structure — it was sparked by a headline. That distinction matters. When price is lifted by communication rather than participation, it tends to drift once the initial impulse exhausts itself. That's exactly what we've seen: a sharp vertical move, followed by stall, then sideways compression into the end of the Neptunian window — what I would call vivid imagination.
This is not accumulation. It's suspension of disbelief.
Markets don't rest because they're strong — they rest because they're uncertain. And uncertainty is the defining feature of this current phase. The Iran headline created a temporary vacuum where sellers stepped aside, but it did not create sustained demand. Without follow-through, price defaults into holding patterns, not trends.
Today the market is in the final stretch of this Neptunian backdrop, with the potential for one more push to the upside entirely plausible — not because the trend is up, but because the environment still favors perception over reality. A second headline, a reinforcement of the negotiation narrative, or even silence interpreted as progress could trigger a final short squeeze higher. That move would look constructive on the surface, to the one-eyed bulls. It would not be.
It would be the last expression of confusion that a policy switch can fix everything — before clarity returns.
Once we move beyond this time window, the market will no longer tolerate ambiguity the same way. The next directional move will be less about what is said and more about what is actually happening. Because it's not about bombs hitting their target. It's about changes in the political structure impacting the macros. From a market analysis point of view, it's about market structure — the change in liquidity, participation, and positioning. the ContraryThinker™ expects that shift to be noticeable in price action and abrupt.
So if we do get that additional push higher, view today's market for what it is: a late-stage reaction inside a fading narrative environment, not the start of a new trend.
The real move comes after the fog lifts.
2026 Annual Scenario Planner — Equities Executive Summary
Timing Model Equities
Across multiple measures of implied volatility, our January fractal formula is consistent, suggesting that the intangible markets — the risk markets — will register a lower high in late March, leading to a continuation of the downtrend that has been in effect from February 10, based on the Dow 30. This annual map dictates the decline into a low of some magnitude on April 20th, plus or minus a day.
When we say a low of some magnitude, we don't know the proportion or size — short-term or intermediate-term — until we see the volatility model measure it. We can also apply Elliott Wave bar chart structure to confirm it.
From a long-term point of view, the annual scenario planner map is bearish for the entirety of the year. With that in mind, we don't expect a long-term low occurring in April. You can refer to the executive summary of the Annual Scenario Planner for the general outline for the rest of 2026, covering all markets — including commodities, precious metals, bonds, cryptocurrencies, and most importantly implied volatility.
the ContraryThinker™ website — gateway: members only
The featured chart here, of implied volatility based on our January fractal formula, is consistent across multiple diverse measures of implied volatility. In Strategy and Tactics, we're focusing on what particular trigger events can be expected in the next few days to implement the more forceful trades. We'll also be considering entries on the counter-trends of existing downtrends.
Perceived risk suggests the fading of wishful thinking in late March and the expectation for increased risk going into mid-to-late April.
The January fractal for implied volatility on the silver market is in line with the above perceived risk scenario for the intangible — or risk — assets. Going into the current time period while maintaining our bullish outlook long term, short term we've said simply to buy dips for one-day trades as a loose strategy. However, going into this current time period, it should be more of a long-term investment opportunity to add to silver or precious metals positions.
From a big-swing investment point of view, any break to new lows should set a trap that will act as a springboard catapult, sending silver higher over the next week or two. Hence, we're perceiving this as a buying opportunity over the next week to ten days. Strategy and Tactics will be refining the tools and the timing.
Perceived risk suggests the fading of wishful thinking in late March and the expectation for increased risk going into mid to late April.
Price Structure
Gold and silver are leading the way regarding the next change of trend. They had been coupled one-to-one with the stock market, and now the metals are trying to shake off that yoke ahead of the stock market decline. We think they will fully decouple once metals post a bottom here in the early-to-mid April period. The silver market looks the same way, rolling over after a simple A-B-C advance.
The big picture remains bullish on the precious metals. We're expecting one more nominal new low in gold, silver, and platinum before the next intermediate-term advance can start. This chart of SLV — the silver bullion ETF, backed by physical silver held in London vaults, custodian JPMorgan — gives us all the information we need to be bullish on the next dip.
The weekly chart demonstrates the volatility model pegging the low on washout selling that reached the $65/oz level before we got a bounce. That low was tested and held, followed by another rally, because it was a level marked by high emotional selling. It becomes a trigger point, price-wise, that sets the gate for a trap. You can see the recent weekly bar filling below it — and the most recent uptick has been pushed back right at it.
The daily chart shows our volatility model signaling technical event number three, which calls the downtrend old, labored but persistent — and overdue for a change of direction.
That fits our scenario calling for one more nominal new low, which would fill out the Elliott Wave price pattern with a fifth wave — where the last leg would be equal to the first leg at 55.
The third-of-a-day chart — the 360-minute bar — hit panic selling at wave 3, forecasting a low-risk buying opportunity. Gold and silver are very close, price-wise, to bringing that into reality.
Timing and model precious metals
Perceive risk C.O.T. Scenarios
Price Structure
Gold and silver markets are leading the way regarding the next change of trend. They had been coupled one to one with the stock market, and now the metals are trying to shake off that yoke ahead of the stock market decline We think it will totally decouple once it posts a bottom here in the early to mid-April period. The silver market looks the same way, rolling over after a simple A-B-C advance.
The big picture remains bullish on the precious metals. We're expecting one more nominal new low in gold, silver, and platinum before the next intermediate-term advance can start. This chart of SLV, the ETF of silver bars, gives us all the information that we need to be bullish on the next dip. SLV holds Physical silver bullion stored in vaults London, custodian: JPMorgan
the weekly chart demonstrates the volatility model pegging the low on washout selling that reached the $65/oz level before we got a bounce. That low was tested and held, followed by another rally, because of it being a place that was marked by high emotional selling. It becomes a trigger point, price-wise, that sets the gate for a trap. You can see the recent weekly bar filling below it, and now the most recent little uptick has been pushed back right at it.
The daily chart shows our volatility model signaling a technical event number three, which calls the downtrend old, labored but persistent, and overdue for a change of direction.
That fits our scenario calling for one more nominal new low, which would fill out the Elliott Wave price pattern with a fifth wave, where the last leg would be equal to the first leg at 55.
The third-of-a-day chart, the 360-minute bar, hit panic selling at wave 3, forecasting a low-risk buying opportunity. Gold and Silver are very close price-wise to that coming into reality.
Volatility condition
A word before you go.
Six months from now, the market will have made its move. The question isn't whether the opportunity was there — it's whether you were on the right side of it.
Most traders see the same charts. Most read the same headlines. And most end up in the same place they started — wondering why the trade that looked so obvious in hindsight wasn't so obvious at the time.
Strategy and Tactics exists for the gap between knowing the direction and knowing exactly what to do about it. Entry points. Timing signals. Positioning. The difference between watching a move and being in it.
The market doesn't wait. Neither should you.
Contrary Thinker insuring your future in the global equity markets.
Great and many thanks,
Jack F. Cahn, CMT+
MarketMap™ 2026 Scenario Planner
Contrary Thinker™ since 1989
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