The Cryptocurrency Transformation
The cryptocurrency market is fundamentally transitioning toward utility-focused adoption rather than speculative trading. Banks and financial institutions are increasingly adopting blockchain technology—not because it's crypto, but simply because it's superior software for their needs.
The shift is from a speculative asset to enterprise software used by businesses and financial institutions. As such it is creating an environment where traditional trading volume diminishes, and exchanges begin delisting tokens.
The answer to “how come?’ has been clear for years: When the speculative trading environments disappear due to insufficient volatility (aka stability) Cryptocurrency essentially becomes backend software—a middleman tool for banks processing payments.
The Critical Question
Is the same at the end of every boom, what to do with the proceeds and in what currency? We highlight our picks here for the long and intermediate term. That includes preservation of capital strategies as well as speculative hedges.
Back Story is Trump’s Art of the Deal
15% Reciprocal Tariffs on Japanese Imports — The U.S. imposes a 15% tariff on Japanese imports, including cars (down from the previously threatened 25%), while steel and aluminum tariffs remain at 50%.
$550 Billion Japanese Investment in the U.S. — Japan commits to investing $550 billion in the U.S. economy, with the U.S. set to receive 90% of the profits from these investments.
Expanded U.S. Market Access in Japan — Japan agrees to open its markets more to U.S. products, including automobiles, rice, and other agricultural goods.
Joint Energy Venture — The deal includes a joint U.S.-Japan venture to export liquefied natural gas from Alaska.
Japanese Yen (JPY) — Current Bullish Trade Setup
Date of Call: April 2025 (reaffirmed July 2025)
Instruments: CME Japanese Yen Continuous Contract (JY), ProShares Ultra Yen ETF (YCL)
Trade Rationale:
The market formed a panic low confirmed by the Technical Event Model (TEM), signaling a low risk to no-risk entry point.
Price is resting in a major monthly support zone, adding structural strength to the setup.
Elliott Wave Theory (EWT) analysis indicates the formation of a corrective wave (2) low, suggesting the end of the corrective phase and the start of an intermediate- to long-term impulsive advance.
Technical indicators show a short squeeze kickoff, confirmed by volatility expansion and TE#2 "trade the trend" environment.
This setup presents an attractive entry point for intermediate to long-term bullish positioning.
Trade Execution:
Initiate long exposure in the Japanese Yen via CME futures and ProShares Ultra Yen ETF (YCL) at market.
Monitor for a pullback or consolidation phase to add or initiate call options on YCL for leveraged upside.
Targets and Expectations:
Intermediate to long-term upside remains intact based on price structure and wave counts.
Short term CT will watch technical and volatility signals for optimal call option entry timing.
I am sure many of the Generation Z will only think in terms of e-money and tokens. Thats fine a report as outlined above is forthcoming for storage. However, from a speculative point of view, there is a little more work to do on the upside.
Bitcoin Market Outlook — Late July 2025
Technical Setup:
Elliott Wave Theory (EWT) indicates Bitcoin is approaching the completion of a major five-wave impulse advance, with wave (5) and its subwaves nearing final stages.
The price is consolidating within a triangle pattern, setting up for a potential long bar breakout to new highs in the short term, but with limited upside due to fractal timing.
The MarketMap Risk Map forecasts a peak in Bitcoin prices around July 2025, aligning with the EWT projection.
After this expected peak, the risk model and wave count suggest elevated risk and a probable price correction or downtrend into the fall (mid-September to late November 2025).
Trade Implications:
Use the breakout to new highs to take profits on Bitcoin positions.
Prepare for new bearish trade ideas and protective hedging strategies post-peak.
Monitor carefully for confirmation of the breakout to capture any final upside leg, while maintaining caution given the broader timing signals.
Bitwise Crypto Index Fund (BITW) — Market Update
Background:
Bitwise Asset Management is a leading crypto investment firm offering diversified institutional-grade products. Its flagship Bitwise 10 Crypto Index Fund provides broad market exposure, bridging traditional finance with digital assets.
Technical and Market Context:
The price structure remains bullish with Elliott Wave Theory (EWT) indicating an ongoing impulsive advance.
The volatility model suggests a continuation of the trend (COT signal).
MarketMap™’s annual risk map remains positive through late July 2025, supporting further gains.
Trade Strategy:
Buy dips but maintain caution around the critical support near 70 — price should not close below this gap before resuming new all-time highs.
Place a stop-loss near 69 to manage downside risk effectively.
Take profits on breaks to new highs near 85, the low side of the target zone.
Contrary Thinker insuring your future in the global equity markets.
Great and many thanks,
Jack F. Cahn, CMT+
MarketMap™ 2025 Scenario Planner
Contrary Thinker since 1989
Copyright 1989-2025
All-inclusive analytical method: Astrological and Historical Cycles, Advanced Technical Analysis, Traditional EWT, Volatility modeling, Contrarian sentiment modeling. All empirically tested with technical methods hard coded and tested for validity.
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-- Contrary Thinker does not assume the risk of its client's trading futures and offers no warranties expressed or implied. The opinions expressed here are my own and grounded in sources I believe to be reliable but not guaranteed.
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