Tis the season to be buoyant.
Pre-holiday tape into the Fourth has a buoyancy bias — the three sessions running into Independence Day carry better than the sessions coming out the other side. The front of July is where the real lift lives: July's opening trading day is the single most consistently up day on the calendar, the S&P it's in the black better than nine years in ten over the last two decades. I know it's a short history, but it's the July fourth holiday that has always been strong going into it.
The market wants to advance into the long weekend; it just doesn't want to hold much through it. Traders lighten up ahead of the break so no weekend headline can drag them off the beach — buoyant going in, soft coming out.
Which sets up the question worth asking heading into this one: is the tape actually attempting to advance, or is it drifting up on thin holiday volume with nobody home to sell it?
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