MarketMapTM Weekly

Over on Substack, we published an editorial on which countries are strong in dollar reserves and which are weak. That measure includes gold as part of reserve status, and the ability to buy energy. We named two countries that are strong and five that are weak.

The ContraryThinker The Dollar Decides Who Survives This One

 If you have not read it yet, it gives you the back story behind our forecast and strategy.

From a timing point of view, the market rallied right into our change of trend date yesterday. This period is ripe with timing cycles, all conspiring to reverse the upward trend. Yesterday's action reflected that. Today is acting within the same parameters, mixed at best. The downturn should get into full flight going into Friday, July 3, when our timing model expects a spike in volatility.

On the context of the market, we have shown the volatility model on the monthly, weekly, and daily bars, all reflecting emotionally frenzied buying. This is flagged by our Technical Event Number One, which signals both panic highs and lows, and by our FOMO Technical Event Number Five, which is highly correlated to market peaks.

From a behavioral point of view, these indicators describe a market being bought indiscriminately, independent of reason, price, or value. A rare clear voice on social media, working in an office alongside traders, shared the following from his trade desk:

“SpaceX is the ultimate example of what is going on right now. The mentality is shown by the guy in my office on the crypto desk, a young kid who came over and said, ‘Hey, are you excited about this SpaceX IPO? I have a bunch of it.’ I said, ‘Have you looked at the financials?’ He said, ‘Do not be ridiculous, of course not.’ That is the mentality of this market. The heavy users of social media do not care, and do not pay attention to what they are buying or what price they are paying. They buy because there is a crowd buying. They tell me everybody is buying it, and that is fine. That is the reason they are buying, and right now that seems to be working for them. Absurd.”

What he describes echoes what we have been saying across our recent publications, in the public domain, on Substack, LinkedIn, and every venue where we publish. Public - which includes institutional types as well - sentiment is irrational.

Such sentiment gauges are now in gear with our volatility models. The markets all made their all-time highs on FOMO buying, which marks an inflection point in ninety percent of cases, if not more.

From a price point of view, the market structure is essentially complete. From the pandemic panic low in 2020, the bar chart structure -in the above featured chart- is complete from an Elliott Wave point of view. The market unfolded in a clear five-wave structure into the recent new highs. That is a completed bull market. Those highs were not confirmed by any of our traditional rate of change or momentum indicators on the monthly bar. Those bearish divergences do not support risk on. To the contrary, it is risk off.

Lastly, from a contrary thinking point of view, there is nothing but positive media being spun on the market. The focus is the opening of the Strait of Hormuz, and the idea that inflation will come under control as oil and gas prices fall. That, the story goes, leaves room for the Federal Reserve to lower interest rates, which is read as bullish for stocks. That is what they want to believe.

You have also heard the other bullish case, that disinflation will persist because high tech lifts productivity enough to offset higher raw material prices. We disagree, because of the demand for capital equipment and infrastructure needed to support that growth. That primary headwind will be the jettison of hyperstagflation.

June 17, 2026. New recommendations and update.

Our robotic assistants are working overtime to build a better interface for monitoring open positions, from my side of the desk and yours. An SMS service is imminent. Thanks for your patience.

From our publications, the entry and exit wrappers should be clear, based on price and money, and in some cases time. If you have a problem or a question, direct message me on LinkedIn or SMS me. My US phone is 760-905-8599. My Australian phone is 614-28119889. SMS only. I am available 24-7.

Picking up where we left off in yesterday's Strategy & Tactics, we hinted at interest rates…