MarketMapTM Weekly

The Volatility Reports from April 17th laid out a market approaching a climactic high — the S&P rallied back to record territory within 11 trading days after a modest 5–10% decline, something with no historical precedent going back to 1928. The technical event model registered panic buying at an extreme, coinciding with a Zweig Surge Index overbought reading, suggesting that a high was near. While the Nasdaq Composite had already hit panic buying on the monthly bar — a technical event reading typically seen at high pivots. The Advance/Decline Cumulative Index was not confirming price, and multiple divergences across both the over-the-counter and blue-chip indicators were foreshadowing a major peak. Price structure pointed to the end of a third wave within a final fifth wave, with a brief correction expected before one more advance into the April 20th change-of-trend window.

The bigger picture framed the U.S. as entering a period of unprecedented hyper-stagflation, with the only historical parallel being the 1969–1982 era that included the '73–'74 bear market. However, that was only a period that was considered stagflation.

While paper assets were expected to struggle under sustained inflation, tangibles — precious metals, energy, rare materials — were flagged as the sectors to own. For bull traders still riding the advance, China and the Shanghai index showed the best worldwide relative strength.

We also hinted based on our timing model that the macro thesis anchored around the July 4th window, where the greatest chance for an Iranian peace breakthrough or an unexpected escalation. Bottom line, it would mark a definitive turning point. It is always based on the rule of contingency. That is, the direction of the major trend going into that period.

Because the macro backdrop is unprecedented — we coined the term hyper-stagflation to describe it — we implied the same regarding market action going back to 1928. We could not recollect in our studies any similar action preceding a major bear market: market action where the decline moved down by escalator, meaning low volatility, only to advance violently, like riding an elevator in the World Trade Center. In other words, a high-volatility advance — frenzied buying, a short squeeze in a near-vertical move, including long-bar days.

However, after consulting with one of my long-time peers, we did find a similar circumstance, which I show here. Coincidentally, it is paired with a major top at the end of a major bull market — the dot-com bubble in early 2000 — showing the blatant bearish divergence between the S&P and the Dow Jones, along with the same type of low-volatility decline and high-volatility advance. And if another historical parallel exists here, which we pointed out before, the high-tech sector is about to go into a decline exceeding 60% over the next several years.

This issue laid out the structural mechanics behind institutional short volatility positioning and why the forced unwind creates asymmetrical opportunity for individual investors — the same pattern that played out on February 27th and is set to repeat multiple times in 2026.

Position #15 — UVIX, the 2x VIX futures ETF, a pure long volatility play timed to a convergence of change-of-trend signals targeting April 20th. Entry driven entirely by the Tactical Event Model, with a second, potentially smaller opportunity expected in May.

Position #16 — Silver, with the vehicle left to each subscriber's risk profile — from ETFs to options. Gold and silver are both posting change-of-trend dates on April 20th, supported by the dual tailwind of industrial demand and the inflation/safety hedge.

UCO (Crude Oil 2x Bull): Entry at $38.00, target $48.00. The notes specifically say the target is "$48 — the width of the triangle." That entry triggered on the April 17 dip when UCO dropped to an intraday low of $35.22, well through your $38 level.

DBO (Invesco DB Oil Fund): Entry at $18.75, target $24.00. Notes say it triggered "at the low point of its trading range" on April 17, with an intraday low of $18.54.

Both positions were framed as buying the low end of crude oil's trading range, and both triggered on the Iran/Hormuz ceasefire selloff on April 17 when oil plunged roughly 11%.

Exit EWJ, EWG, and EWT — the short-volatility (bullish) positions being closed into the current change-of-trend window.

Averaging down, add to long-volatility (bearish) positions: SDOW, SPDN, and EWV.

Looking Ahead: The April 18–20 confluence spans the majority of markets across diverse sectors. Equities are expected to mark a high pivot and turn lower — sharp and eye-catching, but not a washout panic.

Contrary Thinker insuring your future in the global equity markets.

Great and many thanks,
Jack F. Cahn, CMT+
MarketMap™ 2026 Scenario Planner
Contrary Thinker™ since 1989

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