There is nothing to see here, because there is nothing to see here.
It’s dull, listless, and exactly what the politicians want. Nothing. Low volatility. Zero drama.
Since the initial decline, which ended on the double bottom of February 6th/13th, the major averages have been stuck in a trading range equal to 3% at the high to low extremes. The daily bar is averaging 1.3%. The three-day rate of change is currently sitting at 1%. That’s it. One percent.
It’s about as much fun as watching grass grow. Ask anybody on Wall Street — they’d prefer volatility or no market at all. At least then you can go home early. Today instead it’s extended lunch. Nothing on the tape. Nothing on the screens.
Dullsville, man. Dullsville.
The technical event model has most of the stock averages still in technical event number two (TE#2). That basically reflects the trading range, the market coiled up like a spring ready for a trend. You might recall that I mentioned that the market was trend-ready 10 days ago, TE#2. Well, it remains trend-ready but the market refuses a trend until we get some kind of catalyst, either market structure or media-driven. At this point, the market is just holding. It’s dull, man, it’s dull — there’s nothing going on.
There are a few exceptions.
The Annual Scenario Planner for Implied Volatility has been fairly accurate at predicting spikes in volatility; and there’s more to see here.
The current low-volatility regime is not a sign of market health — it is a compression phase. Realized volatility has ground lower into mid-March, producing the kind of dull, directionless tape that lulls participants into complacency — highlighted in the accompanying chart with the descending green dashed line.
This is precisely the condition that precedes a regime shift. Our Implied Volatility COT Map flagged March into early April as a zone of increasing perceived risk, and the underlying astrological transit structure now confirms the timing, using both Western and Eastern astrology.
A cluster of hard aspects — Mars conjunct Rahu, Mercury stationing direct on March 20, and Jupiter in hard aspect to Mars peaking March 21 — converges within a five-day window beginning this week. Three or more simultaneous aspects in a compressed window elevate the probability of a sudden, news-driven volatility expansion rather than a gradual drift.
The setup favors a spike-and-fade profile. With equity markets already declining from the February highs, the directional bias leans toward a fast downside thrust that forces a repricing of risk — not a slow bleed.
Potential events that could fill the above form are leadership miscalculation, policy surprise, or geopolitical escalation. These are all plausible catalysts under this configuration, but the catalyst itself is secondary. What matters is the regime shift: the transition from short volatility to long volatility. Once that compression — dull, low volatility — breaks, the move tends to be sharp and dislocating. We expect the peak intensity of this window between March 20 and 21, with residual instability carrying into early next week. A temporary relaxation of conditions is then anticipated heading into early April. In other words, the stock market should see some type of rebound or buoyancy.
All the fund managers have been taken out of this market so far, both to the upside and the downside. Being lulled into a one-sided bullish point of view is not called for here, and from this side of the desk, looks highly risky.
One reason for that is the weak performance of the bank brokers in the S&P banking sector shown here. Since the major average peaked, it has been declining as well, at a much faster pace, reflected in its inferior relative performance shown on the daily chart.
From an Elliott Wave counting point of view, the decline from its all-time high is a nominal nine-wave structure. That is a short-term trend in the direction of a larger intermediate-term trend. It has been our experience that using nominal wave counts, it’s usually the 7th or the 11th wave that is your highest rate of change part of the trend. If that’s the case, once this 10th wave is finished, this 10th counter-trend rally is done, which it could be today. The next decline should be a high rate of change affair suitable for trading if you’re using leveraged investments.
When we take a bigger look at the broker and bank sector, you can see how it clearly made a major bull market peak, finishing a textbook five-wave structure where the fifth wave is equal to the first wave and the third wave is the extended wave. What is also noteworthy from this chart is how our technical event model pinpointed the low of fourth wave (4), showing the navy blue vertical line highlighting that low, which is critical from an investor's point of view. If that low was broken, that would mean this sector is in a major bear market, which is our forecast. The red dashed line shows panic selling. When it occurs at the same time it is taking out a volatility band, it suggests that you've got panic selling in hand and to expect follow-through. You can see several examples of it on this chart. That's one of the nuances of the technical event model, which we will be putting up on TradingView for good clients there.
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Jack F. Cahn, CMT+
MarketMap™ 2026 Scenario Planner
Contrary Thinker™ since 1989
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