The vast majority of market analysts crossing our desk remain committed to the bullish side of Bitcoin. The Millennial generation sees no alternative to fiat currency and understands the power behind currency creation. That said, price, time, and sentiment all suggest the bull market in Bitcoin may be over, with confirmation potentially nearby.

The weekly chart of the Bitcoin Trust, squared with the dominant 3 and 9-year cycle, peaked at $108,000 at the end of 2025—precisely when the cycle was due to make its high. This coincided with a panic reading on our volatility model, signaled by the vertical dark blue hashed line on the weekly chart.

Throughout the bull market in effect since 2009, every panic low of this proportion has led to subsequent all-time highs. Therefore, any failure to achieve new highs from here would likely trigger aggressive selling by investors and traders. We must wait for new all-time highs to confirm the bull market remains intact.

The short-term action in Bitcoin futures will tell us everything we need to know about whether we're still in a bull market. The lows posted at 80,255 are critical. If the current rally fails to reclaim $100,000—significant resistance we've highlighted throughout last year—and that low breaks, it confirms via cycle theory that we've entered a new bear market.

[Link to our educational brief on cycle theory mechanics—easy to understand, very short read]

Our momentum system remains short. The broader chart work reveals a horizontal triangle pattern forming as wave B in Elliott Wave terms, pointing to one final thrust higher targeting approximately 99,700. This triangular pattern appears valid, but the thrust out of it would represent the end of a trend, not the beginning of a new one. It would complete an ABC counter-trend rally just under $100,000.

From there, we expect a test of the 80,255 level (the late 2025 low). If that support fails to hold, Bitcoin's outlook turns decidedly negative for the intermediate to long term—which is our working hypothesis.

There are numerous reasons to be bearish on Bitcoin, but we'll keep it simple:

Key Levels to Watch:

Trading Stance: Defensive/Bearish

Refer to the 2026 Annual Scenario Planner, which shows the probability of market peaks in early January is very high. How however, the lunar-solar cycle low occurred last Friday. On a short-term trading basis, all markets that rallied off short term cycle lows and must hold above to maintain their uptrends. Any failure will be met with aggressive selling by traders.

Featured chart always have our readership in mind providing them, I feel, with insights they can be used repeatedly in the future. This chart is good demonstration of what to expect for a bull market to begin. The chart shows two different measures of momentum thrust.

It's almost always accompanies the kickoff of bull markets. You can see the spikes in both indicators in the early part of 2025. This is a hard and fast rule: an extreme level of momentum is always followed by more momentum. So it should not have been debated in early 2025 whether or not it was going to be a bull market year.

Yet is there anything else we can pull away from these stock market exclusive indicators? For one 2025 while being a bull market year was a notoriously thinning bull market which has been widely discussed. You know this when it reaches social media. But that didn't obviously did not stop the averages for moving higher, But it does imply unhealthy bull market. What else is curious about the chart is given the big Dow advance on Monday January 5, 2026, it was not accompanied by even a modicum of broad based momentum. That by itself put the bull market in a delicate position.

Broader Market Weakness: High-Tech Signals

Another clue to the bearish setup in the broader market is weakness in high-tech. The FANG index has been unable to hold its cycle lows for some time. The solar-lunar (tidal) cycle made its low late last week, and the FANG index posted its weekly low on that date. If this index cannot recover and resume making higher lows and higher highs, selling should accelerate on the downside.

This featured chart demonstrates how near the cycle low inversion is for the old leadership Glamor Index. A move below 15,500 would be an overt sell signal. The short-term volatility model supports a trend move (TE#2.) Therefore, a bearish trigger has a high probability of turning into a pro directional trend.

The only wave analysis that we've applied to the chart is optimistic and that it only sees a 25% risk taking your glamor index down to the 4th wave of a lesser degree. The chart also demonstrates the power of our technical event model on the long-term monthly chart but you pinpoint the panic buying high via TE#5. The middle chart also demonstrates the power of our volatility model pinpointing the intermediate term low because of the panic selling that ended intermediate term way.

So take this as another learning opportunity in that field time signals connect as inverted or flipped triggers but the low at intermediate term wave 4 on panic selling makes that price level very important. Given our bearish forecast for 2026 that low should be taken out like a hot knife through butter because of its importance.

Trade Recommendation: We continue to recommend ownership of FNGD (the bearish 3x ETF on the FANG index). We've been buyers below $5.50. If you have an opportunity today, we suggest taking it.

It should be fairly straightforward to determine when this market turns decisively bearish. Some of our friends and colleagues are waiting for the advance-decline (A/D) line to favor decliners over advancers by a certain ratio before confirming the downturn. However, based on cycle theory, we don't believe we need to wait for that price confirmation.

Time alone has run out for the bulls if they cannot hold last week's lows—when the most recent trading cycle low was made. That failure by itself would negate any bullish alternative Elliott Wave counts that traders may be tracking on their daily charts.

Failed Bullish Signals: The Most Bearish Setup

There is nothing more bearish than a failed bullish signal—a principle we can take to the bank. Our featured chart shows three high-tech indices displaying bullish triangle patterns. Notice how the semiconductor index ($SOX) has made an early breakout above that pattern.

Here's where the bulls stand to lose: A cycle low just occurred last Friday. If the bulls cannot hold these averages above last Friday's low, their failure will be a clear signal that the bullish action in the Dow Jones is nothing more than a smokescreen.

The Time Factor: A Contrarian View

While a number of my respected colleagues are waiting for internal price measures to confirm that a high is in place, it's this contrarian thinker's opinion that the factor of time—which evades most technical analysts—can be the determinant here based on cycle rules.

Not only the rule stated previously, but also the time-tested principle that if a cycle low is violated, it becomes a powerful sell signal, aka an inversion.

2026 Scenario: Forecast Remains Intact

Our scenario going into 2026 called for the peak to occur in late 2025/early 2026 across all major averages. That forecast has not changed at this point, even if the Dow manages to hold at all-time highs today. In fact, it does not alter the historical parallelism and the two-year pattern associated to it outlined in our Annual Scenario Planner (Issue #2).

Short-Term Outlook: Bulls Must Defend Friday's Lows

We'll see how the bulls perform for the rest of the day. If they can rally the troops to support the high-tech sector and prevent those markets from taking out Friday's lows, they might still retain the long-term bullish trend.

However, failure to hold Friday's lows in high-tech would confirm:

Key Technical Levels to Monitor: Critical levels to monitor the XLK at 143.40, the QQQ at 610.00, the $SOX at 7,286, and the Dow Jones at 47,853

Market Stance: Cautiously Bearish – Watching for cycle low violation to confirm

Bottom Line: The convergence of timing cycles and technical setup suggests the market is at a critical juncture. Bulls must defend last week's lows immediately, or risk confirming our forecast that the 2026 is a bear market year.

Crude Oil Forecast — as of 2026-1-5

Long Term (6 months or longer): BULLISH
The larger structural setup remains intact, with energy positioned as a beneficiary of supply constraints, geopolitical risk, and the next inflationary impulse.

Intermediate Term (6 months or less): BULLISH
Price structure continues to support higher levels, with consolidations acting as a base rather than distribution, consistent with a developing impulse phase.

Short Term (one week to several weeks): BULLISH
Recent drifting action reflects digestion after mid-2025 run to $75. This pullbacks remain controlled and have not damaged the underlying trend.

Short term trend following systems are on a buy. The aggressive alpha trend tracker is on a buy signal for several days. The traditional 50 day 200 day moving average Golden Cross is on a buy signal as well.

The volatility model provides a background setup supporting these trend following buy signals. The TE#2 increases the likelihood of buy signals picking up a following, becoming pro directional trend (a series of up days.)

From a cyclical timing standpoint, we believe the trader's 20-week cycle established its low at $55 on December 24th (coinciding with the Venus-Neptune aspect). The market should be positioned for upward momentum from this level.

Astrological Technical Analysis

Using astrological timing methods as supplementary technical indicators, we're identifying several positive price attractors:

Near-Term Catalyst: The prolonged pressure on crude oil prices—persistent for many months—appears ready to ease. As Saturn (the lid) transitions from Pisces into Aries (new beginnings) on February 14th, this shift is already coming into orb (within three degrees). We anticipate this planetary ingress may correlate with reduced downside pressure beginning now.

Key Timing Indicators:

Astrological Signatures: Volatility Amplifiers

Planetary alignments do not determine trend — they amplify whatever phase the market is already in.

Key signatures ahead include:

The confluence of these cyclical and astronomical timing factors suggests the December 24th low may mark a significant turning point for crude oil prices in the current cycle.

Great and many thanks,
Jack F. Cahn, CMT+
MarketMap™ 2026 Scenario Planner
Contrary Thinker™ since 1989

Copyright 1989-2026

All-inclusive analytical method: Astrological and Historical Cycles, Advanced Technical Analysis, Traditional EWT, Volatility modeling, Contrarian sentiment modeling. All empirically tested with technical methods hard coded and tested for validity.

Contrary Thinker
1775 E Palm Canyon Drive, Suite 110- box 176
Palm Springs, CA 92264 USA
760-459-4681

OR

25/1 Poinsettia Court
Mooloolaba, QLD Australia 4557
614-2811-9889

-- Contrary Thinker does not assume the risk of its client's trading futures and offers no warranties expressed or implied. The opinions expressed here are my own and grounded in sources I believe to be reliable but not guaranteed.

-- Client subscribers are responsible for keeping their payment details up to date and cancellations via the payment gate.

-- Pricing is subject to change without notice. My indicators and strategies can be withdrawn for private use without notice at any time. Digital products are not returnable or refundable.

-- Trading futures and options involves the risk of loss. Please consider carefully whether futures or options are appropriate for your financial situation. Use only risk capital when trading futures or options.