MarketMapTM Scenario Planner

Markets are trading as if stability is the default setting. Volatility gauges sit low, risk premia narrow, and investors act as though nothing disruptive lurks beyond the headlines. But beneath that surface calm, the back-page stories point to fractures that markets are mispricing.

Take the so-called 12-day war — barely covered outside the region, dismissed as just another skirmish. In reality, it may have been the opening move in a decades-long strategy to dismantle Iran’s deterrent capacity. Reports suggest Iran lost most of its missile launchers, nearly all of its air defenses, and a large portion of its ballistic arsenal in less than two weeks — with its leadership neutralized at the outset. No retaliation came, not because of restraint, but because the command to strike never arrived.

This is the kind of event markets ignore at their own peril. Iran’s regime is weaker than its rhetoric, its alliances with Russia and China more fragile than advertised. For now, the global oil lifeline remains untouched — Kharg Island, the export hub for 90–95% of Iran’s crude, still pumps. But when that port is hit, the illusion of calm will break. Energy prices will leap, China will be forced to react, and Russia will find its crude exports advantaged by chaos.

Meanwhile, in Ukraine and the Middle East, peace talks mask long-term rearmament. Ukraine quietly secures $150 billion in weapons financing, even as Hamas accepts ceasefire terms Israel has yet to acknowledge. These are not resolutions — they are pauses, interludes before escalation.

On the domestic front, America’s institutions rehearse old fractures. Trump promises an executive order to ban mail-in ballots and voting machines for 2026, while Newsmax pays $67 million to settle election disinformation claims. Statehouses redraw maps, stage walkouts, and escalate battles that erode legitimacy.

Technology pushes ahead regardless. NVIDIA compresses advanced AI onto a single GPU, Alibaba’s coder captures 20% global share in weeks, and Google bets its data centers on nuclear power. Regulators chase shadows, but the tide of disruption won’t wait.

And corporate power fuses with the state: SoftBank invests $2 billion in Intel as Washington eyes its own stake. Novo Nordisk bypasses insurers with a $499-per-month direct-to-consumer Ozempic subscription. UK metals firms sue their own government over tariffs. The old dividing line between markets and politics is gone.

This is what low volatility hides: a world reordering itself under the surface. The 12-day war may prove to be the first act of a much larger campaign. By the time the front page catches up, the market will already have moved.

When methods developed worlds apart all land on the same period, that’s not coincidence — that’s convergence. From cycle theorists to Elliott Wave technicians to astro-timers, the outlook is unanimous: markets are entering a critical Change of Trend window.

Add to the above list this analyst annual fractal map (published each January) featured here. Thus far it has traced out the pattern of the market with a high degree of reliability. It also fits with the above pivot time windows. This fractal is based on Bitcoin, the leader in risk markets, revealing a double top in August/September.

However, it is the annual scenario map of the VIX that is more stunning, shown here. It traced out the first tariff scare spike in volatility to the day. Its peak was spot on April 7 the day the global markets made their panic (wash out) lows.

More importantly, the map calls for a low in VIX in the current time window followed by a period of long volatility that lasts 4 to 5 weeks. Our timing work has the precise dates when to expect the lows after the Autumn Equinox.

Real-World Confirmations

Aug 15–16 – Geopolitical disruptions: Ukraine escalations, Middle East shocks, U.S. domestic tensions.

Aug 15–18 – Risk assets surged on optimism, ignoring underlying stress (classic euphoria).

Financial Media – Pushing “soft landing, new highs ahead,” mirroring 1929/1987 cheerleading before collapse.

All independent methods (cycles, lunar, astrology, Spiral Calendar, Fib counts, Trump’s chart) converge on Aug 18–19, 2025 as a Change of Trend window.

Signature: blow-off optimism + misinformation + euphoric narrative — immediately followed by reversal.

With the Jackson Hole known news event hanging out for a fast market. So the “High Delta Trade Strategies” (Silver AGQ, Crude Oil GUSH, Gold UGL, Bitwise Crypto) will be out shortly but the advice has not changed and there is nothing new to add.

Contrary Thinker insuring your future in the global equity markets.

Great and many thanks,
Jack F. Cahn, CMT+
MarketMap™ 2025 Scenario Planner
Contrary Thinker since 1989

Copyright 1989-2025

All-inclusive analytical method: Astrological and Historical Cycles, Advanced Technical Analysis, Traditional EWT, Volatility modeling, Contrarian sentiment modeling. All empirically tested with technical methods hard coded and tested for validity.

Contrary Thinker
1775 E Palm Canyon Drive, Suite 110- box 176
Palm Springs, CA 92264 USA
760-459-4681

OR

25/1 Poinsettia Court
Mooloolaba, QLD Australia 4557
614-2811-9889

-- Contrary Thinker does not assume the risk of its client's trading futures and offers no warranties expressed or implied. The opinions expressed here are my own and grounded in sources I believe to be reliable but not guaranteed.

-- Client subscribers are responsible for keeping their payment details up to date and cancellations via the payment gate.

-- Pricing is subject to change without notice. My indicators and strategies can be withdrawn for private use without notice at any time. Digital products are not returnable or refundable.

-- Trading futures and options involves the risk of loss. Please consider carefully whether futures or options are appropriate for your financial situation. Use only risk capital when trading futures or options.