Gold & Silver: Capitulation Low in Progress — March 19, 2026
The Technical Event Model registered panic-level selling in both Gold and Silver today. Gold was down at its extreme approximately 6% and Silver 8% — a severity mismatch that historically resolves with a sharp snapback in favor of the underperformer. This is not distribution. This is forced liquidation. The price structure across both metals is consistent with the terminal stage of a corrective Elliott Wave sequence — the kind of compressed, high-velocity decline that marks the end of the trend, not the continuation of one.
the featured chart here shows, with the navy blue vertical lines, the history of panic lows in both these precious metals, having a high degree of accuracy. Regarding the Elliott Wave structure, one thing is missing that would make it perfect, and that is an undercut low, which has not happened yet with today's panic selling.
While a failure to complete the pattern is always possible, it is preferred to see the low in silver (basis the nearby futures) take out 64.52 and for gold to take out 4,423. However, we're not going to be perfectionists here, since we have both time and context in our favor that a tradable low is in place or nearly in place in the current time frame.
The timing is not accidental. Mercury retrograde — the classic miscommunication and mispricing signature — is days from stationing direct. Tomorrow brings the Sun's ingress into Aries at 0° (the vernal equinox). Long-time members of our team know that Gann, as well as this analyst, favor the change of seasons to be coincidental with changes of trends in various markets
Silver and gold, side by side, panic lows.
We can add to that, however the Sun conjunct Neptune on March 22nd and Mars conjunct Saturn at 4° Aries on the 25th. This is a dense cluster of astrological events landing precisely at the same time that our volatility model is registering panic selling. These are the hallmarks of a low. As a rule, sharply declining markets into hard aspects are almost always a change of trend pivot.
When the TEM says capitulation and the calendar says pivot, you pay attention. The expectation is for a reversal to begin between now and Monday. Subscribers should be watching for long entry opportunities in both metals.
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MarketMap™ 2026 Scenario Planner
Contrary Thinker™ since 1989
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